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Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Exciting Forecast

Please press play on the youtube video below for increased dramatic effect:



Here is my official prediction for this weeks weather: Hurricane Isaac will suffer an instantly fatal blow as soon as it touches the burnt up southern states. The humidity and winds of the gulf stream will fly north, magnetically connecting with the Saskatchewan wetlands. Super boiling hot air will explode out of eastern Saskatchewan, from Flin Flon to South Dakota and Minnesota. Godzilla himself will rise up out of Brandon and eat Winnipeg for an appetizer rip across the great lakes states and take a big shit on southern Ontario and Quebec. This will all occur over the next 5 days whilst I dust out my computer. At least that's what the models told me. :) Please do not take this forecast as fact, I just wanted to make it sound exciting! (Slight risk tomorrow lol)

Sunday, August 26, 2012

Hurricane Isaac Landfall In New Orleans - Forecast Model


Note: Currently not yet a Hurricane, Tropical Storm Isaac is forecast to reach hurricane strength tomorrow off the Florida coast.

Hurricane Isaac make landfall in New Orleans on Tuesday according to the latest forecast models. This should mainly be a wind and rain event for the south while winds aloft spin counter clockwise over the north, causing a possible severe weather outbreak in Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Tuesday and Wednesday. Forcast model images courtesy of College Of Dupage:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Commentary and forecast model deciphering by Jared Mysko 
http://canadianprairiestorms.blogspot.com/

Friday, August 24, 2012

Risk Of Tornadoes Today - Map


Strong thunderstorms today with a risk of tornadoes, heavy downpours and flash flooding into this evening.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Today's Map

Mostly clear today, lots of rain for central Saskatchewan on Friday, could be some storms.


Douglas Park Lightning Storm - August 22, 2012

Update with photos:






Sometimes the little storms are the most beautiful, this was certainly the case last night as a non-severe lightning storm rolled by just south of Regina and was perfectly captured from the top a the Douglas Park hill over looking the city of Regina, Wascana Lake, Conexus Centre of the Arts and the Saskatchewan Legislature. The storm structure, intense lightning, unreal sunset and all the colors over looking the lake was a great way to cap a great year of storms in Saskatchewan.


Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Today's Risk Map

Tornado Watches have been issued for Lloydminster as swirling upper level winds should generate supercells later this afternoon. Strong heating from the south east and moisture in central Saskatchewan combined with a passing low pressure system is creating the ingredients for tornadic supercells in western Saskatchewan and these storms should build up in strength over night into southern Manitoba tomorrow.


Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Alberta - Today's Severe Thunderstorm Risk Map

Storms are beginning to come over the Rocky Mountains with a low pressure system that is entering hot dry air in Alberta. Severe thunderstorm watches have been issued for much of east central British Columbia and west central Alberta. Another area of precipitation is entering from Montana but carries no watches or warnings as yet. Strong microbursts are possible this afternoon and into the evening as the low crosses Alberta. A microburst is an intense downdraft from a thunderstorm that often causes localized wind damage and flash flooding.



Monday, August 20, 2012

Severe Weather Forecast This Week - Storms On Wednesday?

As the weather continues to warm up this week, temperatures will peak at 31C on Tuesday and Wednesday in Regina with 33C in Swift Current and Moose Jaw on Tuesday. Storms currently in the central Alberta foothills should begin to develop further south and east into much of southern Alberta on Tuesday. Wednesday could be Saskatchewan's turn to see thunderstorms, possibly severe, tornadic unlikely. It should clear out Thursday while maintaining temperatures in the high 20s giving another peak, then big drop in heat on Friday night when the chance of stronger storms is likely in parts of southern Saskatchewan. We will monitor this situation as it develops. It has been a very calm August thus far in Saskatchewan and that could change since no hurricanes or tropical storms have taken off yet in the Atlantic and storms in the southern states are dissipating. Its gotta storm somewhere!

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Storm Forecast - Season Wrap Up - Twister Tue(2)sday!

Strong upper level winds are forcing Arctic air into the Canadian Prairies and even further south past Montana today causing a strong temperature gradient across North Dakota and into Minnesota. An outbreak of severe weather is expected in an unusually large area covering 8 states around Minnesota today. This should mainly be a straight line damaging wind event for those areas and may reach parts of extreme southern Manitoba.

The long term forecast suggests that we will gradually warm up into the weekend in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba with CAPEs (Convective Available Potential Energy) returning on Sunday. Southern Alberta could see marginally severe thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday with Saskatchewan and Manitoba added into the mix on Wednesday. None of these days will there be any widespread activity or tornadoes. The storm season truly seems to have come to an abrupt end this month of August but don't count on this trend continuing. Things could change abruptly if it ever dries out. Tornadoes have been known to occur as late as the beginning of September but are considered very rare at this time of year. Overall things will depend on how hurricane season develops in the Atlantic, if there are hurricanes then we will see calm clear sunny skies in Saskatchewan. As predicted many months ago, it looks like this will be one of the most productive and profitable harvests ever for farmers in Saskatchewan.

As for the Canadian Prairie Storms Network, I would personally like to thank everyone involved for an amazing season. Certainly one the most active years on record with tons incredibly documented footage of thankfully injury and fatality free tornadoes. The experimental forecast map was a popular and useful tool and I will continue to advance my knowledge and education along its lines. Twitter and especially the Twitter list was another great tool for relaying information and sharing footage of the many chasers and spotters that participated. Environment Canada, The Weather Network, Global, CTV and CBC and various radio and newspaper networks made for a great team, together we will all continue to learn, respect and appreciate the beauty and strength of the weather on the Canadian Prairies. I look forward to the future and a possible rehashing season ending get together with fellow storm chasers sometime soon. It will be a great time to sit back and have an epic brain storm about what to do with all the great footage taken by so many in such a short year. A feature length, big screen movie about the year could be worthy of the name Twister Tue(2)sday!


Tuesday, August 14, 2012

"MUST WATCH VIDEO" (and LISTEN!)

INSANE WINDS NEARLY KILL VIDEOGRAPHER ON DEERFOOT TRAIL IN CALGARY TODAY! WATCH TO THE END!!! (The music goes with the dangerously swaying sign, this is extra epic!)



http://yfrog.com/ghi97mycbcrsefjucvmynphhz


Severe Thunderstorm Risk Continues In Southern Alberta [Risk Map]

As forecasters yet again predicted thunderstorms for south central Saskatchewan, the weather decided it wasn't finished with Alberta. Yet another round of severe weather crossed the Albertan foothills through Olds and passed Calgary with a target set on Brooks at this hour. After anticipating thunderstorms this afternoon over Regina either late this afternoon or evening, things have shifted so far west that it doesn't seem likely we will hear thunder until maybe late at night if at all in the Queen City. A large mass of cloud cover prevented any heating or convection to occur in southern Saskatchewan while Alberta gets hammered once again by strong thunderstorms.


Friday, August 10, 2012

Storms Developing In South West Saskatchewan

Severe thunderstorm warnings and watches have been issued for areas of Swift Current, Cypress Hills regions in south west Saskatchewan this evening. Wind gusts could top 100km/hr with these thunderstorms and could last well into the evening or overnight. Moving east at 30km/hr, storms are expected to stay south of the Trans Canada Highway affecting extreme southern parts of Saskatchewan tonight.

There is a chance of storms again tomorrow but nothing major as surface winds are marginal, deep moisture pool is lacking and heat is not extreme in any areas.


Thursday, August 09, 2012

Storm System On The Move - [New Map]

After several days of storms staying put in the mountains and foothills of Alberta, the system finally moved on  into Saskatchewan this morning. Being pushed by extreme heat in the west, Val Marie currently sits at a cozy 35C while Regina is right in the humidity soup at 23C. Extreme instability is now present over eastern Saskatchewan and storm cells the north are beginning to emerge. Over the next few hours, watches should be issued and a risk of a tornado is possible between the Yellowhead and Trans Canada highways in eastern Saskatchewan. The cities of Regina and Yorkton are included in this risk however unpredictable weather can be as we get closer to hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane often suck all of the elements of storm action from Saskatchewan giving us very calm and moderate weather. Today will be different.